The game is changing. Slowly, steadily, and without any major disruptions.
Looking at the European Commission’s data, the picture is surprisingly simple: without drama, but also without illusions.
In its document “EU Agricultural Outlook 2025-2035,” the Commission predicts that EU sugar production will fall to approximately 15.3 million tons in 2035. Yields will fall from 75 to 72.4 t/ha, acreage will decrease by about 10%, and costs… well, they aspire to grow faster than beet in the field. In practice, this means about 1% less production per year. It doesn’t seem like much, but after a decade, it makes a significant difference.
The Commission isn’t threatening with high prices. Instead, it points to something more important: the market will become increasingly sensitive. Sugar is starting to react to everything – from weather to energy to politics. Exactly what we’ve seen in recent years.
On top of that, there’s global competition. Brazil (approximately 40 million tons per year), India, and Thailand play in a completely different cost league. Cheaper production, a better climate, and integration with bioethanol. Europe won’t win here on scale; it must compensate in terms of organization and quality.
Poland? We’re in the game. We produce over 2.4 million tons of sugar annually, ranking us third in the EU and second in the global top ten. This is a strong regional position, but we don’t call the shots. We play by the rules set by the global market.
Prices: Stable… until they stop being so
And now the crux: prices. At the wholesale level (sugar mills, industry), the situation is relatively calm today. In 2025, producer prices were around 2.1–2.3 PLN/kg, and forecasts for 2026 suggest 2.0–2.2 PLN/kg. Stable.
The biggest change, however, is not in the level of prices, but in their nature. Sugar is no longer predictable and is becoming reactive.
Additionally, there is falling consumption – from approximately 16.4 million tons currently to approximately 14.5 million tons in 2035. The decline isn’t spectacular, but it is consistent: approximately 0.5–0.7% annually. It sounds harmless until we look at the decade, when we discover that up to 2 million tons of demand disappear from the market.
Less sugar and fewer consumers? Theoretically, yes. In practice, this means a more tense market and more sensitive to any disruption.
Where profits really come from
And this is where theory clashes with practice. For a grower or sugar mill, the most important question is no longer how much will I produce? But how much of it will I deliver in a quality that someone will pay for?
Losses in heaps, a decline in quality, logistical chaos – these aren’t details. These are real costs. And often the biggest ones. That’s why the mindset is changing. Once, tons per hectare mattered. Today, tons of good-quality sugar delivered to the sugar mill are increasingly important.
Technology will help – new varieties, genetics (as CIBE discusses). But it won’t replace the organization and preservation of crops during storage. You can have a great beet and “lose” its value between the field and the sugar mill.
Profit shifts from field to process management
nonwoven fabrics
Nonwoven fabrics designed for agriculture and horticulture. Made of polypropylene, they are resistant to moisture, mold, and chemicals, maintain dimensional stability, and are highly breathable and water-permeable.
Źródła:
- Komisja Europejska – https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/2d8980f6-ed09-11f0-8d3c-01aa75ed71a1
- Główny Urząd Statystyczny https://agronomist.pl/artykuly/wzrosty-notowan-cukru-na-gieldach-czy-cukier-w-polsce-bedzie-jeszcze-drozy
- Ministerstwo Rolnictwa / ZSRIR https://www.topagrar.pl/articles/aktualnosci/ceny-cukru-w-polsce-jakie-stawki-placa-handlowcy-i-przetworcy-2536033
- Analizy rynku (m.in. Nawozy.eu, BNP Paribas) https://nawozy.eu/aktualnosci/newsy/z-kraju/ceny-cukru-w-sierpniu-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com